Welcome！

I am Xunchao Zhang. I am currently the Social Sciences | Humanities International Security fellow at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. I am also a Hans J. Morgenthau Fellow at the O’Brien Notre Dame International Security Center. I received my Ph.D. from the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Political Science Department in Fall 2025. My research interests include the political psychology of interstate conflict, public opinion, and the domestic politics of foreign policy.

My dissertation investigates a puzzling aspect of international relations: why does military retaliation, often seen as motivated by deterrence, frequently escalate conflicts instead of preventing them? While conventional wisdom and strategic discourse might advocate for retaliation as a means of deterrence, I propose that the real impetus often stems from an intrinsic desire for revenge. Though the realm of international relations has explored the emotional mechanism and individual predispositions towards revenge, we lack theoretical and empirical understanding regarding which international scenarios are likely to incite the desire for revenge. Using survey experiments, large-N analysis of historical conflict data, and in-depth case studies—I posit that the primary trigger for revenge in international relations is the magnitude of suffering experienced by one’s ingroup. Consequently, retaliatory actions are less about strategic deterrence and more about inflicting equivalent pain on the adversary, potentially setting off a revenge cycle. Interestingly, the mere anticipation of a desire for revenge from an adversary’s public can prompt greater restraint in foreign policy preferences, serving as a deterrent in its own right. These insights not only challenge the traditional deterrence paradigm but also enrich our understanding of international rivalries.

My research has been generously supported by the Stanton Foundation, the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Notre Dame International Security Center (NDISC), Stand Together Trust (STT), the George L. Mosse / Laurence A. Weinstein Center for Jewish Studies, the Institute for Humane Studies (IHS), and the American Political Science Association (APSA).